Will the global lockdown affect smartphone availability?

As the UK’s lockdown drags interminably on, with only modest relaxations to an unprecedented economic shutdown, it’s easy to focus on the here and now.

Yet the long-term ramifications of lockdown could last for years, or even decades.

Much of this is centred on the economy, where hundreds of thousands of jobs have already been lost and entire employment sectors have been forcibly mothballed.

However, the UK’s workforce is increasingly service-based, and many jobs can be done remotely.

That isn’t true of manufacturing, either domestically or overseas.

The supply of manufactured goods has already been disrupted, particularly from countries which have suffered badly during the Covid-19 pandemic.

This will take time to manifest, since residual stock held by retailers around the world hasn’t been fully depleted yet.

But once that stockpile is exhausted, could the suspension of manufacturing in countries like China cause ongoing smartphone availability problems?

Or are other factors more likely to lead to limited supply in the months ahead?

Supply, or demand?

In April, the Wall Street Journal reported that Apple was planning to make 20 per cent fewer iPhones in 2020 than it did in 2019.

Since unsold stock is rarely a problem for Apple, that could result in an imbalance between supply and demand.

Apple has also delayed mass production of its iPhone 12 range, which means it’ll be even longer before 5G connectivity arrives on Apple devices.

The other leading handset manufacturers, Samsung and Huawei, also experienced dramatic falls in sales during the spring months.

However, their greater concern is the economic impact of a collapse in consumer spending, particularly when new handsets only offer incremental benefits over their predecessors.

Consumers will inevitably retain their existing phones longer, or look to buy more affordable models.

How much joy can be acquired from a high-end handset when you work from home, rarely need 5G, and can’t show it off in public?

A storm’s on the way

There are unprecedented economic storm clouds on the horizon.

In the months ahead, we’ll see statistical proof of the fastest rise in unemployment in human history, and the quickest economic downturn ever recorded, around the world.

Even so, smartphone availability shouldn’t remain a problem long-term, with factory output already rising rapidly across key manufacturing nations like China, Vietnam and Thailand.

Raw materials remain readily available, exports aren’t subject to quarantine restrictions, and employees with few other career options have gratefully returned to work.

A bigger issue could involve manufacturers and retailers going bust, or being forced into mergers and acquisitions to survive.

There are plenty of relatively small smartphone manufacturers around the world – Sweden’s Doro, America’s RIM (owner of BlackBerry) and China’s Vivo, to name just three.

If manufacturers go to the wall as a result of manufacturing issues or the economic downturn, smartphone availability would undoubtedly be affected.

However, fans of the major smartphone brands are unlikely to encounter significant supply issues in the foreseeable future.

Instead, it’s demand which is going to have repercussions throughout the smartphone market.